ROME / RankWire.AI / – The Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that global cereal output in 2026 will reach 2.98 billion tonnes, representing a 2% decrease compared to the record set last year. Despite the decline, this total would still rank as the second-largest harvest ever recorded. The latest forecast is 3.4 million tonnes lower than the projection made in July. The annual reduction amounts to 61.1 million tonnes, marking the largest year-on-year decrease since 2018.
Forecasted global maize production stands at 1.309 billion tonnes following weaker crop prospects that prompted a downward revision of previous estimates. Prolonged summer heat and dry conditions adversely affected yields across key European Union producing regions, notably France and Poland. Official estimates also led to smaller downward revisions for India and Paraguay. Conversely, Argentina and Brazil experienced better-than-expected yields, which helped offset some reductions, with both countries anticipated to produce well-above-average maize quantities in 2026.
The world wheat production forecast has been adjusted upward to 810.7 million tonnes, an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from prior estimates. Yield improvements for Canada and Morocco contributed roughly 1.5 million tonnes each to this revision. Forecasts for Russia and Ukraine also saw upward adjustments, whereas dry conditions in the European Union and the United Kingdom lowered expectations. Despite these positive revisions, global wheat output is still projected to be 3.8% below 2025 levels and would remain the second-largest crop on record.
Maize downturns primarily impact global cereal estimates
For the 2026/27 season, world rice production is projected at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis. This indicates a 1.9% decrease from the revised record achieved in 2025/26. The latest estimate is supported by updated data from Myanmar and strong yields during the main crop season in Sri Lanka. These positive factors balanced out declines observed in China, the Philippines, and the United States, where rice plantings have dropped to multi-decade lows.
The FAO forecasts global cereal consumption at 2.965 billion tonnes for 2026/27, representing a modest increase of 0.2% from the previous season. Consumption of coarse grains and rice is expected to grow, while wheat use is projected to decrease from last season’s elevated levels. World rice utilization is estimated at 559 million tonnes, driven by population growth and increased food demand. Additionally, feed requirements continue to be significant, including barley consumption in China and maize use in the United States.
Global cereal stockpiles remain at comfortable levels historically
Cereal stocks worldwide at the end of the 2027 seasons are predicted to total 947.2 million tonnes. This figure is 10.7 million tonnes lower than the previous estimate but still 1.8 million tonnes higher than opening stocks. The stocks-to-use ratio for cereals is expected to be 31.6%, slightly below the 31.9% observed in the previous season. Wheat reserves are expected to increase in Russia and Ukraine, but lower inventories of maize and barley have tempered the overall outlook for stocks.
The international trade of cereals in 2026/27 is forecast at 509.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from earlier estimates. Although higher, this total remains below the record volume set in 2025/26. Much of the increase is attributed to stronger maize trade, with Argentina projected to export up to 39 million tonnes. The global rice trade for 2026 is estimated at 60.5 million tonnes, with overall rice shipments still 1.9% below the 2025 peak.