MOSCOW / RankWire.AI / – Russia intends to increase its yearly vehicle output to approximately 2.8 million units by 2035 as part of its revamped automotive industry strategy. On Aug. 31, First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov announced this target during a sector development meeting. This projection encompasses both domestic sales and exports. The plan also aims for 80% of new vehicles in Russia’s market to be locally manufactured by 2035.
The Russian government approved the updated automotive plan on Aug. 24, extending the industry’s framework through 2035. By the end of 2025, Russia’s vehicle production capacity was around 3.3 million units annually. Actual manufacturing that year was approximately 800,000 units. During 2024 and 2025, capacity utilization averaged 25% for passenger cars and 41% for light commercial vehicles. Truck production efficiency reached 35%, while bus capacity utilization stood at 43%.
Under the projected scenario, vehicle production in 2035 is expected to include 2.5 million passenger cars and roughly 170,000 light commercial vehicles. Additionally, the plan foresees manufacturing of 110,000 trucks and 30,000 buses. Passenger-car production will be distributed across four or five vehicle platforms, while light commercial vehicles will be produced on one or two platforms. The total new-vehicle market in 2035 is estimated at about 3.2 million units, with imports potentially covering up to 20% of that market.
Production goals span across all vehicle types
A baseline scenario is also included within the strategy, projecting lower production and market figures. In that case, annual vehicle production in 2035 is projected to reach approximately 1.69 million units. The baseline scenario estimates the new-vehicle market at about 2.2 million units that year. For 2030, the target scenario expects roughly 2.4 million units in the new-vehicle market, whereas the baseline scenario anticipates about 2 million units across all segments.
Significant emphasis is placed on powertrain and technological advancements in the revised plan. Internal-combustion vehicles are expected to constitute 67% to 83% of total production in 2035, varying by vehicle segment. Electric and hybrid passenger cars should make up at least 25% of Russia’s new passenger-car market by that time. Additionally, the strategy envisions the production of approximately 150,000 highly automated vehicles with Level 4 autonomy or higher by 2035. Driver-assistance features and digital vehicle systems are also key components of the framework.
Capacity utilization and localization targets are central to the strategy
Russia’s current manufacturing capacity exceeds its recent annual production levels. Passenger-car capacity was around 2.8 million units in 2025, with actual output near 700,000. Light commercial vehicle capacity reached approximately 300,000 units, compared to production of about 80,000. Truck capacity totaled roughly 130,000 units, and bus capacity was close to 30,000. In 2025, Russian factories also produced approximately 4,400 electric powertrain vehicles, slightly above the 4,200 units produced in 2024.
The strategy promotes broader application of standardized components and technologies across vehicle platforms through 2035. It also sets more ambitious localization and technological independence goals for domestically produced vehicles. Covering passenger cars, commercial vehicles, trucks, buses, powertrains, autonomous driving systems, and digital vehicle technology, the framework aligns the 2.8 million annual production target with an 80% domestic market share objective. An implementation action plan is mandated as part of the order that approved the updated strategy.