POTSDAM, GERMANY / RankWire.AI / – New research indicates that by 2100, the land area affected by wildfires across Europe could nearly triple. The study predicts a 192% rise in annual burned zones under a high-emissions trajectory linked to approximately 3.6°C of global warming. This comes in the wake of significant wildfires in 2026 that impacted regions of Belgium, France, Greece, Portugal, and Spain. The analysis identifies hot, dry, and windy conditions as the primary climate factors driving these events.
Published in Global Change Biology, the research employed two fire simulation models integrated with the LPJmL vegetation model. The scientists examined a low-emissions pathway, SSP1-2.6, and a high-emissions pathway, SSP3-7.0. The lower pathway equates to roughly 1.8°C of warming, whereas the higher reaches about 3.6°C. To isolate the effect of socioeconomic factors, the team also ran experiments where these variables were held constant.
Under the scenario of lower emissions, one model projected a roughly 39% increase in land burned annually by the end of the century. Another model suggested a possible reduction under reduced warming, as it accounted differently for historical human influences. In contrast, the high-emissions scenario models indicated a much more substantial increase, especially around the Mediterranean and across large parts of Western and Central Europe, regions that have historically seen relatively low fire activity.
Models attribute burned area growth to emissions
The study highlights that future wildfire patterns in Europe are strongly influenced by fire weather conditions and firefighting capabilities. Regional variables such as population density, vegetation shifts, and land use changes also play a significant role. The lead author, Maik Billing from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, explained that the analysis distinguishes climate-driven fire weather from human factors that can modulate fire spread.
Enhancements in prevention strategies, early detection, and firefighting efforts could potentially reduce the burned area by between 72% and 92% compared to scenarios lacking such improvements. The reduction potential is greater under the lower-emissions pathway and less pronounced with increased warming. Nevertheless, even with ongoing improvements, fire activity is projected to rise in approximately 55% of Europe’s fire-prone regions under intense climate change. Co-author Thomas Hickler, affiliated with the Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre in Germany, noted this.
Fire control measures can mitigate wildfire expansion
This research coincides with the intense wildfire season in Europe in 2026, marked by dry conditions and extreme heat that ignited widespread fires. Southern Europe experienced some of the worst outbreaks, but fires also spread further north. The projections extend beyond the Mediterranean, indicating increased fire activity in parts of Western and Central Europe. The authors attribute these trends to altered fire weather patterns driven by rising temperatures and prolonged dry spells.
The study emphasizes that the projected 192% increase should not be viewed as an unavoidable future. It represents a modeled outcome based on the high-emissions pathway and the assumptions within the study. The researchers found that emissions reductions could lead to significantly smaller increases, and that effective fire management could produce substantial reductions from the projected figures. However, they also concluded that management efforts alone would not fully counteract the fire activity escalation associated with stronger warming. Ultimately, the findings identify emissions levels, fire weather, and firefighting capacity as the primary determinants shaping Europe’s future wildfire landscape.